Negative news and worrisome trends unsettled global stock markets in September. The Delta variant of the Coronavirus continued to spread, overflowing hospitals in areas with low vaccination rates. Supply chain woes and labor shortages constrained growth by forcing companies in manufacturing and services to operate below capacity. Global energy prices spiked, catching many off-guard. Evergrande, China’s second-largest property developer, wobbled under crushing debt. Meanwhile, word that the Federal Reserve may start to unwind its support of the economy in coming months weighed on investors. Bond yields rose. Inflation persisted and stagflation entered the discussion. Equity markets sank.

For some months now, steadily rising stock prices have felt out of step with our chaotic world. Each day brings new disasters and seemingly intractable problems: fires, floods and hurricanes, global warming, a surging pandemic, bitter political fighting, and humanitarian crises. And yet these events do not seem to weigh heavily on Wall Street. The market shrugs it off and stock prices continue to rise.

Covid-19 remained the top story in July, with the fast-spreading Delta variant dashing hopes that life might soon return to “normal”. Meanwhile, global warming wreaked havoc across the world. Massive wildfires in the West spewed smoke across much of the United States. Record rainfall across Western Europe caused extensive flooding, destruction and death. Unprecedented heat and drought destroyed crops of summer fruit and produce. Despite these cascading catastrophes, July was a good month for investors.

When Covid-19 sucker-punched the global economy in March 2020, anyone predicting five subsequent quarters of stock market gains would have been laughed out of the room. But that’s exactly where we are today—five quarters of equity growth on the heels of a global economic meltdown. Proving once again that markets don’t follow the wisdom of the crowd or the timelines we expect.

 

Last month, many people were surprised to learn that the FBI had tracked and retrieved a large portion of a bitcoin ransomware payment made by Colonial Pipeline. After all, bitcoin is touted as being ultra-secure and nontraceable. How did they do it? “We followed the math,” said one FBI agent. This should be a warning to those thinking about investing in cryptocurrency, of which there are now hundreds of options. No one’s got your back, and you’ll need a strong stomach for volatility. This month we share some common sense observations about crypto-investing from DFA’s Weston Wellington. First, a review of May market data.

On the heels of a global pandemic and economic shutdown, the financial press has something new to obsess about: inflation. Not much of the discussion is reassuring. Will inflation’s long-anticipated return eviscerate fixed income returns? Will it knock growth stocks out of the ring? Will it derail the market’s recovery? Will it erode the value of the dollar? How will investors be harmed? Here we offer our perspective and advice. First, a recap of last month’s numbers.

The first quarter of 2021 fueled hopes for a strong 2021 market recovery. The Dow finished up 7.8%, the S&P gained 5.8%, and the Nasdaq added 2.8% for the quarter. But we also saw signs of desperation: wild trading in the equities market, spurred on by Reddit and Robinhood. And we witnessed the debacle of Archego Capital Management, a family-owned firm that used risky “total return swaps” to massively leverage investors’ money. International banks took a huge hit as the bet unraveled. “I guess the smart money isn’t that much different than the Reddit traders,” posted one commenter in the Wall Street Journal (April 6, 2021). You might be asking, is this what recovery looks like?

Sometimes the investment landscape is radically altered overnight. Such was the case when the US economy was abruptly shuttered in March 2020. A year from now we may look back again, assessing how President Biden’s signature $1.9 billion Covid-19 relief plan affected the economy for better or worse. Meanwhile, we have plenty to unpack this month as markets respond to a tidal wave of money, hopes for recovery, and the threat of inflation.

2020 was one of the most traumatizing years in modern history. Then January 2021 started off with more new dramas. A deadly insurrection at the Capitol. A second Impeachment. The inauguration of a new US president, a special election in Georgia, and Democrats gaining control of the US government. Through it all, the saga of Covid-19 continued to unfold with news of supply shortages, unequal access to vaccinations, fast-spreading mutations and more. To top it off, there was the wild GameStop story.

From the vantage point of mid-January, 2020 seems long ago and far away. Continuing turmoil may affect the market for some time to come. Yet with so many outcomes unknown, some things remain constant, including fundamental principles that underlie successful long-term investing. This month I am sharing a 2020 capital markets recap reprinted in full from DFA.