There’s a fight happening right now over the future of artificial intelligence, between a White House that wants no guardrails and an AI company whose Pentagon contract is under review for insisting on them, between companies spending hundreds of billions on a productivity revolution and a market that’s rotating away from them in real time. Who profits, who gets displaced, who sets the rules, these questions are being answered right now, not in theory but in stock prices, in Washington, and in the portfolios of anyone with meaningful exposure to U.S. technology.

But first, the numbers.