There’s a fight happening right now over the future of artificial intelligence, between a White House that wants no guardrails and an AI company whose Pentagon contract is under review for insisting on them, between companies spending hundreds of billions on a productivity revolution and a market that’s rotating away from them in real time. Who profits, who gets displaced, who sets the rules, these questions are being answered right now, not in theory but in stock prices, in Washington, and in the portfolios of anyone with meaningful exposure to U.S. technology.

But first, the numbers.

As 2025 came to a close, the economic picture looked largely familiar. Unemployment remained low, consumer spending held up, and inflation continued to ease gradually, even if it stayed well above long-term targets. Policy uncertainty never fully faded, but it also failed to disrupt growth in a meaningful way.

Markets reflected that ambiguity. Some investors positioned for a resurgence in inflation, others for a sharper slowdown. Neither scenario fully played out. Instead, markets moved unevenly through the year and still produced solid results. U.S. equities finished 2025 up roughly 17%. Markets outside the U.S. were stronger, with both international and emerging market equities posting gains north of 30%. Fixed income also contributed, with bonds benefiting from higher starting yields and a more stable rate environment.

And then the calendar turned.