As the year winds down, it’s natural to ask what comes next. December is a time when attention shifts toward forecasts for the year ahead—what to expect, what to prepare for, and what might change.

Before looking forward, it’s worth reflecting on what actually happened this year. 2025 did not follow a single, consistent market narrative. Instead, it unfolded as a series of resets—shaped less by one dominant shock and more by an evolving economic backdrop, shifting expectations for monetary policy, and ongoing repricing in areas like large-cap growth, technology, and credit.

This all played out amid heightened political attention and policy debate, adding an extra layer of scrutiny and uncertainty. Markets repeatedly had to reconcile mixed signals with forward-looking optimism, producing periods of volatility alongside new highs.

From a volatility perspective, 2025 looked fairly typical: periodic pullbacks, rotations, and reversals, but no extreme dislocations. At the same time, returns finished well above historical averages, delivering strong performance.

By the end of the year, the takeaway is straightforward: careful planning, patience, and a long-term perspective can translate into meaningful results. That’s a solid foundation for what comes next.

If you stack the headlines from last month, it is clear why investors might feel off balance. Analysts warn of a looming public debt crisis in the U.S. and a handful of other wealthy countries, rooted in the tension between interest rates and nominal growth. Economic strategy appears to rely on tariffs and AI-driven bets, which the market considers high-risk gambles. A record-long government shutdown, with Congress struggling to agree on basic spending bills, reinforces the sense that the U.S. is operating with high debt, little political margin, and a growing reliance on the Fed to smooth the edges. Underneath it all, the battle against inflation was not fully won, and affordability has become the central economic anxiety for many households.This seesaw can create low-level unease, and it’s understandable. Yet the real question for investors cuts deeper: how do you put money to work when nothing feels certain, and still preserve the purchasing power you’ve spent decades building? How do you avoid gambling on the future without retreating from it? How do you guard purchasing power without slipping into speculation, or letting fear push your portfolio into paralysis?

Bolstered by strong September performance, both global stocks and bonds delivered solid third-quarter gains. In the U.S., equities extended their remarkable run, powered by resilient consumer spending, enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and growing conviction that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle had finally ended. When the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points on September 17 — its first move lower in more than a year — markets took it as confirmation that a gentler monetary era had begun.

Markets remain calm even as global instability rises. From geopolitical flashpoints to soaring U.S. debt, risks are building beneath the surface — yet investors seem focused on the short-term calm rather than the long-term cracks forming in the system.

In this post, John Gorlow of Cardiff Park Advisors explores the hidden pressures shaping today’s markets, the push to bring private equity into 401(k) plans, and why having a resilient, long-term plan is essential for navigating uncertainty.

This summer’s headlines have read like a blueprint on how to derail investor confidence. The Federal Reserve’s independence was called into question, the bearer of unpleasant economic data was abruptly fired, and the National Guard was called in to patrol the nation’s capital. Meanwhile, tariff uncertainty continued to create storm clouds over the global economy. Yet the market rallied on, seemingly unconcerned by economic data that is noisy, worrisome, and often contradictory. Despite the market’s performance, monetary credibility and market trust are two topics very much on investors’ minds.

Are you puzzled by how the markets appear to shrug off the erratic economic decisions coming out of Washington? The only thing that seems to rattle the markets these days is when Trump threats to fire Jay Powell—then the reaction is immediate and negative. But what about the rest of it? The tariffs are on, off, on again, delayed (but maybe not). Major U.S. trading partners are wary and confused, and U.S. businesses are feeling the heat. Inflation has ticked up.

And yet markets certainly aren’t reacting to these trends. Nor are they reacting to the average Joe, who may be worrying about health care, rising food prices, inflation, or the loss of a white collar or government job. Rather, investors appear be adapting to a seismic shift in geopolitical thinking. And that’s worth exploring.

Some months, markets rise on strength. But at other times, they rise despite weakness. This is what happened last month, to the consternation of many investors. The S&P 500 climbed 6.3% in May, with U.S. stocks posting their strongest monthly gain since late 2023. Markets were led by a resurgence in large-cap technology stocks. Treasury yields also moved higher, reflecting both improved economic sentiment and the persistent overhang of fiscal instability. Bond markets absorbed a credit outlook downgrade from Moody’s, while inflation data gave the Fed some breathing room.

These gains occurred against a backdrop of rising global and domestic tensions, the news getting worse with each passing day. Why does the market seem so complacent? After a quick review of May market data, we’ll explore why markets don’t always reflect our mood, and offer tips on managing investments during times of volatility.

After a quarter marked by economic turbulence, policy whiplash, and market volatility, investors are wondering if things will settle down. Have we averted a major market shock, or are we simply in a holding pattern before the next disruption? The answer may very well be “yes” and “yes.” Our work over the past month has focused on cutting through the noise, reading the signals, and reaffirming what matters most for long-term investors.

April brought sharp swings across equity and bond markets. U.S. stocks stumbled early in the month but managed to stabilize. The S&P 500 finished slightly lower, while international markets—both developed and emerging—posted gains. Bond markets held up well, supported by falling yields and signs of cooling inflation. Still, the economic data showed a mixed picture. A 41% surge in imports ahead of tariff changes dragged first-quarter GDP slightly negative. Consumer and business spending remained healthy, even as government spending fell. Technology stocks rallied, while energy lagged by a wide margin. Treasuries extended their winning streak, posting gains for the fourth consecutive month.

In the first week of April, markets were thrown into chaos as President Trump's tariff announcements reverberated through global financial markets. Stocks tumbled, the dollar fell, and even the world’s safest assets—gold and U.S. Treasury bonds—were hard hit. Investors were incredulous as Trump’s “Liberation Day” charts revealed steep worldwide tariffs on friends, foes, and uninhabited islands with equal disregard for consequences. This felt like a game of bluff. Except Trump insisted he wouldn’t fold.

For a few days it felt like the financial world was teetering and might even collapse, even as White House advisors hinted that a grand strategy would soon be revealed. Maybe so, but there was apparently no forethought given to the market’s extremely volatile and negative reaction. Within a few days, Trump did an about-face and announced a 90-day pause on the new tariffs. (Except for China, where tariffs would be even more punitive.) Markets rallied, with investors hoping the worst was over.

Markets are at an inflection point, caught between economic resilience and deep uncertainty. Volatility has surged, policy shifts are sending mixed signals, and geopolitical realignments are reshaping the global landscape. With Trump’s second term in motion, tariffs, tax cuts, and executive power moves are creating both risk and opportunity.

What does it all mean for investors? This piece dives into the forces driving today’s market turbulence—what’s noise, what’s structural, and how to stay strategically positioned. Plus, a look at February’s market trends and what’s ahead.