When Covid-19 sucker-punched the global economy in March 2020, anyone predicting five subsequent quarters of stock market gains would have been laughed out of the room. But that’s exactly where we are today—five quarters of equity growth on the heels of a global economic meltdown. Proving once again that markets don’t follow the wisdom of the crowd or the timelines we expect.

 

Last month, many people were surprised to learn that the FBI had tracked and retrieved a large portion of a bitcoin ransomware payment made by Colonial Pipeline. After all, bitcoin is touted as being ultra-secure and nontraceable. How did they do it? “We followed the math,” said one FBI agent. This should be a warning to those thinking about investing in cryptocurrency, of which there are now hundreds of options. No one’s got your back, and you’ll need a strong stomach for volatility. This month we share some common sense observations about crypto-investing from DFA’s Weston Wellington. First, a review of May market data.

On the heels of a global pandemic and economic shutdown, the financial press has something new to obsess about: inflation. Not much of the discussion is reassuring. Will inflation’s long-anticipated return eviscerate fixed income returns? Will it knock growth stocks out of the ring? Will it derail the market’s recovery? Will it erode the value of the dollar? How will investors be harmed? Here we offer our perspective and advice. First, a recap of last month’s numbers.

The first quarter of 2021 fueled hopes for a strong 2021 market recovery. The Dow finished up 7.8%, the S&P gained 5.8%, and the Nasdaq added 2.8% for the quarter. But we also saw signs of desperation: wild trading in the equities market, spurred on by Reddit and Robinhood. And we witnessed the debacle of Archego Capital Management, a family-owned firm that used risky “total return swaps” to massively leverage investors’ money. International banks took a huge hit as the bet unraveled. “I guess the smart money isn’t that much different than the Reddit traders,” posted one commenter in the Wall Street Journal (April 6, 2021). You might be asking, is this what recovery looks like?

Sometimes the investment landscape is radically altered overnight. Such was the case when the US economy was abruptly shuttered in March 2020. A year from now we may look back again, assessing how President Biden’s signature $1.9 billion Covid-19 relief plan affected the economy for better or worse. Meanwhile, we have plenty to unpack this month as markets respond to a tidal wave of money, hopes for recovery, and the threat of inflation.

2020 was one of the most traumatizing years in modern history. Then January 2021 started off with more new dramas. A deadly insurrection at the Capitol. A second Impeachment. The inauguration of a new US president, a special election in Georgia, and Democrats gaining control of the US government. Through it all, the saga of Covid-19 continued to unfold with news of supply shortages, unequal access to vaccinations, fast-spreading mutations and more. To top it off, there was the wild GameStop story.

From the vantage point of mid-January, 2020 seems long ago and far away. Continuing turmoil may affect the market for some time to come. Yet with so many outcomes unknown, some things remain constant, including fundamental principles that underlie successful long-term investing. This month I am sharing a 2020 capital markets recap reprinted in full from DFA.

 

Global markets staged one of their biggest rallies in years in November, propelled by progress on coronavirus vaccines and investor relief over the end of a polarizing US presidential election. A wide range of stocks fueled the run-up, expanding support beyond the few dominant technology companies that drove up indexes earlier this year. Better than expected corporate earnings across multiple sectors added to the surge. With nearly all S&P 500 companies reporting, analysts are projecting third quarter profits fell -5% from a year earlier, which is a marked improvement from the -20% decline forecast at the end of September.

 

Long-predicted volatility showed up like a sudden, fast-moving storm in the final week of October. Election jitters, Congressional failure to deliver a Covid-relief package, new lockdowns in Europe, and a rapid rise in US Covid cases gave investors all the reasons they needed to dump stocks. The carnage was severe, with the S&P shedding 5.6%, the Dow dumping 6.5%, and the tech-driven Nasdaq losing 2.4% in just one week. For the month, all three indexes lost 2% or more. 

Investors could be forgiven for feeling disconnected from reality at the end of Q3 2020. Among many disrupted patterns and expectations, we’ve witnessed a skyrocketing stock market amidst deepening global economic pain and human suffering. Yes, there are always opportunities hidden within calamities. But who could have predicted the astounding gains of the last two quarters?