The president’s recent inaugural speech to Congress had an unusually reassuring tone. But the speech raised one alarm after another for deficit hawks and anyone else still hoping that Mr. Trump would slash spending. The fear is that big-ticket plans like Mr. Trump’s lead to big deficits that dampen economic growth and drive down returns. That’s the conventional wisdom, anyway. But is it true?

Investors and markets don’t like surprises. Will interest rates rise slowly or quickly?  Will Congress appropriate mega-funding to US infrastructure, slash taxes, or both? Are Trump’s growth plans mere dreams, or rooted in reality? What will happen to the Affordable Care Act? As financial pundits pondered these post-election questions, the January markets quietly defied expectations. There’s a lesson in that. 

Don’t Believe the News — We may look back at 2016 as the year in which Russia and fake news helped elect an American president. In the financial markets, it was a year of misleading news as well. The facts were right, that’s true, but most financial analysts got the forecast wrong. 

It’s the Trump era. Or a re-do of the Reagan era. Or possibly the “I don’t understand how to work this” era. How should investors navigate this complex new world of what-if scenarios? For once, even the pundits seem unsure.   

 

Who wasn’t as election results rolled in? Few expected the 45^th president of the United States to be a real estate developer with multiple business bankruptcies and a sideline career as a reality TV show host. Is now the time to rejigger your portfolio? Before you act, check out this month’s feature section on how not to become your own worst enemy.

Presidential elections give rise to all kinds of market predictions. This year, the polarization of American political parties and attention-grabbing remarks by Donald Trump are bringing out the pundits in droves. Our advice: keep calm, carry on, and don’t react to the doomsday scenarios.

Like the wallflower who becomes popular, passively invested index funds are turning heads and inciting foes. Some big guns of the active investment industry are warning of dangers ahead if passive investing gets too big. Despite recent heated rhetoric, there are interesting and valid questions about where it could all lead.

With markets climbing and the Dow hitting a new high, why are investors feeling uneasy? There are plenty of reasons. Chief among them: the global economy is in the doldrums. But there’s more than one way to read the situation, and some analysts see a turning point ahead.

VOLATILE FIRST HALF CAPPED BY RATE DROP AND STOCK RALLY. While most diversified investors earned decent returns in the first half of the year, wild market swings along the way fed our collective uncertainty. What does volatility tell us about future returns? We’ll look at what’s been roiling the markets and a new DFA study, then review the numbers.

What A Difference A Day Makes. Explosive shock” is how one Reuters headline described the reaction to yesterday’s vote that severed UK ties with the European Union. Markets around the world plunged as analysts and pundits struggled to understand long-term implications. Investors were stunned, wondering where the unraveling of the EU will end.