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  • Markets Hint That Change is Coming Plus Q2 Market Report

    John Gorlow | Jul 18, 2024

    It was a great first half of 2024 for stocks. The S&P 500 reached record territory, climbing about 15% from January through June. Investors were cheered by a slowdown in inflation, disappointed that Fed didn’t begin rate cuts, and dazzled by the glittering potential of AI. The AI chipmaker Nvidia rose an astounding 150% in six months, briefly becoming the most valuable company on the planet.

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  • Navigating Debt, Politics, and Economic Challenges Plus May Market Review

    John Gorlow | Jun 14, 2024

    As November elections draw near, the threat of election interference from Russia and China looms large. Both countries aim to undermine the stability of American democracy by creating confusion among U.S. voters and pushing them toward extreme viewpoints. Such interference could unsettle markets and have far-reaching consequences for high-stakes issues including U.S. fiscal policy, immigration, and foreign policy.

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  • Cause Vs. Correlation: Parsing the Inverted Yield CurvePlus April Market Report

    John Gorlow | May 17, 2024

    In weather, an inversion layer is an odd phenomenon in which warm air pushes cold air to the ground, resulting in trapped smog and unsettled conditions. In finance, an inverted yield curve is a similarly odd disturbance. When investors demand higher yields (or interest) for holding short-term U.S. debt than they do for holding long-term debt, something is decidedly off-kilter. Common wisdom says that an inverted yield curve signals a recession. But so far, the pattern is not unfolding as predicted..

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  • The Subtle Stress of a Surging Market
    Plus February Market Report

    John Gorlow | Mar 19, 2024

    Shrugging off uncertainty over inflation and Fed policy, Wall Street celebrated its fourth consecutive winning month in February. The Nasdaq closed at a record high, and both the Dow and S&P 500 turned in the best two months at the beginning of a new year since the pre-Covid days of 2019. Perhaps all this good news makes you feel anxious about what comes next. Will markets continue their climb, or are they primed for a fall? As an alternative to predictions and Fed watching, I encourage you to consider verifiable historical data about market peaks, valleys and recovery times over the past 100 years.

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  • Cautious Optimism
    Plus January 2024 Market Report

    John Gorlow | Feb 15, 2024

    Following the broad-based Q4 stock rally, investors entered 2024 with both hope and caution. Trading was choppy, but by the end of January, the S&P 500 Index notched several new highs and a third consecutive monthly gain. For the first month of the year, at least, confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy outweighed concerns about monetary policy. Whether that confidence will remain intact is uncertain.

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  • 2023 Wasn’t What We Expected. 2024 Won’t Be Either. Plus Q4 Market Report

    John Gorlow | Jan 17, 2024

    Perhaps the most predictable thing about 2023 was that most market predictions would be wrong. Many pundits foresaw a recession, a stalled economy, stubbornly high inflation, job layoffs and more. Instead, the U.S. economy proved to be remarkably resilient, rewarding investors with a stunning stock rally in the final two months of the year. Markets were lifted by a raft of good news, including inflation falling faster than expected, strong U.S. economic output, and a healthy labor market. Driving the year-end surge was the belief that central banks are done with interest rate hikes and will soon begin rate cuts. How that story unfolds remains to be seen.

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